No one foresaw that the “socialist modernization” that the post-Mao
Chinese government launched would in 30 years turn into what scholars
today have called China’s great economic transformation. How the actions
of Chinese peasants, workers, scholars, and policymakers coalesce into
this unintended consequence is the story we tried to capture. Today, we
don’t need to present any statistical data to convince you the rise of
the Chinese economy, even though China still faces enormous challenges
ahead. Many Chinese are still poor, far fewer Chinese have access to
clean water than to cell phones, and they still face many hurdles in
protecting their rights and exercising their freedom. Nonetheless, China
has been transformed from the inside out over the past 35 years. This
transformation is the story of our time. The struggle of China, in other
words, is the struggle of the world.
Against conventional wisdom, we take the end of 1976 as the start of
post-Mao reform and argue that China basically became a market economy
by the end of the 90s before it joined the World Trade Organization in
2001. In the new millennium, the Chinese economy has kept its growth
momentum and become more integrated with the global economy. As an
account of how China became capitalist, our book focuses mainly on the
first two decades of reform. Within this time frame, our account is
split into two parts by a dividing event, the 1989 Student Movement.
The first part of the story is a tale of two reforms. One was
designed by Beijing; its goal was to revitalize the state sector and
save socialism. The other resulted from grassroots initiatives. The
state-led reform came in two phases. The first one started at the end of
1976 under Hua Guofeng. Hua was Maos designated successor, who
consolidated his power base after arresting the “Gang of Four” and
ending the Cultural Revolution. Even though loyal to Mao, Hua was an
economic modernizer.
With full support of Deng Xiaoping and other Chinese leaders, Hua
launched his economic program of modernization, which would be later
disparaged as “the Leap Outward.” Essentially, it was a stateled,
investment-driven program, with a focus on heavy industry; it is a good
example of what economists called “big-push industrialization.” But the
program lasted barely over two years. It was called off in early 1979,
partly due to its own defects and partly due to leadership change: at
the end of 1978 the Central Committee held a meeting, at which Deng
Xiaoping and Chen Yun came back to power and Hua was no longer in
charge.
Deng Xiaoping is widely known in the West. Ezra Vogel’s recent
biography has documented in detail Deng’s role in China’s reform. In
comparison, Chen Yun is a shadowy figure. But Chen was China’s top
official in charge of economic affairs. He was the architect of China’s
first Five Year Plan in 1953 and a strong believer in central planning.
Since he grew up and apprenticed in Shanghai before becoming a
revolutionary, Chen also saw a limited but critical role for the private
sector and market under socialism. Chen lost his position when Mao
started the Great Leap Forward in 1958, which Chen opposed. He came back
to power along with Deng at the end of 1978 and was handed the job of
designing an economic reform program.
Chen believed that the Chinese economy had long suffered structural
imbalance: too much investment in heavy industry relative to light
industry and agriculture, and state sectors and planning being
emphasized at the exclusion of private sectors and markets. In his view,
Hua’s economic program, which focused on heavy industry, made the
Chinese economy worse. That’s why Chen forcefully ended “the Leap
Outward” against strong opposition from the State Council and imposed
his economic policy. This marked the second round of Beijing-led reform.
This round of state-led reform was two-fold: adjustment at the macro
level and state-enterprise reform at the micro level. Structural
adjustment was imposed across the economy. For example, more investment
was channeled from capital goods to consumer goods production. More
money was allocated to agriculture. The government raised the purchasing
prices for agricultural products by more than 20 percent in 1979 and
significantly increased grain import. Beijing also took steps to
decentralize foreign trade and gave more fiscal autonomy to provincial
governments. At the micro level, the emphasis was squarely placed on
what was seen as the economic foundation of socialism, the state-owned
enterprises. The strategy was to devolve some rights to state
enterprises and allow them to keep some profits. Beginning in 1979 and
throughout the 1980s, the Chinese government was preoccupied with
incentivizing state enterprises.
Reform on the Margins
There is no doubt that the post-Mao Chinese government pursued a series
of reforms. But today, with the benefit of hindsight, we know that the
economic forces that were really transforming the Chinese economy in the
first decade of reform were private farming, township and village
enterprises, private business in cities, and the Special Economic Zones.
None of them was initiated from Beijing. They were marginal players
operating outside the boundary of socialism. For these marginal forces,
the Chinese government was happy to leave them alone as long as they did
not threaten the state sector or challenge the Party’s political power.
This created a room for what we called the “marginal revolutions” that
brought entrepreneurship and market forces back to China during the
first decade of reform.
One such marginal revolution is private farming. Private farming was
certainly not new in China. Before 1949, it had existed for millenia. In
the early 1950s, Mao tried ruthlessly to collectivize farming. Some
peasants believed in Mao and hoped collectivization would offer them a
way out of poverty. After 20 years of collective farming and 40 million
famine deaths, they knew better. Many went back to private farming after
Mao died, even though Beijing was still trying to beef up the commune
system. In September 1980 Beijing was forced to allow private farming in
areas where “the people had lost their confidence in the collective.”
But once the floodgates of private farming were opened, it could no
longer be controlled. By early 1982 it became a national policy. Chinese
agriculture was decollectivized. Later in the official account of
reform, Beijing would credit itself for launching agricultural reform.
But the reform enacted by Beijing merely raised the purchasing prices of
grain and increased grain import; private farming, which really
transformed Chinese agriculture and freed Chinese peasants, did not come
from Beijing.
Township and village enterprises were industrial operations located
in rural areas. During the first two decades of reform, they were the
most dynamic sector in the Chinese economy. Since they operated outside
the state plan, they did not have guaranteed access to raw materials
controlled by the state but had to purchase them from the black market
at a higher price. They were also excluded from the state-controlled
distribution system to sell their products, but had to hire their own
sales teams to travel all over China to find markets for their products.
In other words, they had to operate like real business firms. This is
what they did. And it did not take long for them to outperform state
enterprises, which had all the privileges and state protections that
they simply stopped being enterprising.
The first private businesses in Chinese cities were started by people
who did not have a job in the state sector. Most were city youths
recently returned from the countryside. During Maos era, 20 million
middle school graduates (ranging from 15 to 18 years old) in cities were
sent to the countryside partly because the government could not create
enough jobs. After Mao died, they came back, but found no job in the
state sector. Young, jobless, and restless, they took to the streets and
even blocked the railway. This mounting pressure forced the government
to open the door for self employment. Private shops started to emerge in
Chinese cities; they quickly ended state monopoly of the urban economy.
Among the four marginal revolutions, the Special Economic Zones were
the most controversial. They were established to coopt capitalism to
save socialism. The idea was to allow them to experiment with the market
economy, importing advanced technology and managerial know-how, selling
goods to the global markets, creating jobs and stimulating economic
growth. But the experiments were confined to a few enclaves and strictly
controlled so that they would not undermine socialism elsewhere, and if
the experiments failed, their damage to socialism would be negligible.
Regional Competition
The presence of two reforms was a defining feature of China’s economic
transition. The failure to separate the two is a main source of
confusion in understanding China’s reform. The Chinese government has
understandably promulgated a state-centered account of reform,
projecting itself as an omniscient designer and instigator of reform.
The fact that the Chinese Communist Party has survived market reform,
still monopolizes political power, and remains active in the economy has
helped to sell the statist account of reform. But it was marginal
revolutions that brought entrepreneurship and market forces back to
China during the first decade of reform when the Chinese government was
busy saving the state sector.
The second part of our tale began in 1992 after Deng Xiaoping’s
southern tour. While marginal revolutions brought market forces back to
China in the previous decade, regional competition became the main
transformative force in the second decade, turning China into a market
economy at the end of the century. Regional competition was not new; it
existed in the first decade of reform. But then it created trade
barriers at provincial borders and fragmented the Chinese economy. China
implemented price reform in 1992, tax reform in 1994, and began to
privatize state enterprises in the mid-1990s. These reform measures
paved the way for the rise of a common national market, which was able
to impose market discipline on all economic actors, turning regional
competition into a transformative force.
Here, our account differs from the one presented by Huang Yasheng in
his book, Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics. A controversial
argument of Huang is that China was more capitalistic and
entrepreneurial in the 1980s than in the 1990s. If the argument means
that private entrepreneurship prevailed against the state in the 1980s,
it is in full accord with our tale of “marginal revolutions.” But if it
suggests that China moved away from a free market economy in the second
decade of reform, it misses a fundamental change in the economy in the
1990s; the emergence of a common national market, which was a
precondition for regional competition to work.
Identified with repetitive investment, regional competition is often
faulted for distorting comparative advantage and hindering economies of
scale. A more nuanced pictured emerged in our account. What regional
competition did was to translate China’s advantage in space as a
continental country into the high speed of industrialization. How this
happened can best be seen from a Hayekian perspective, which stresses
the growth of knowledge as the ultimate force driving economic change.
In Maos time, education was under attack and knowledge became a
political liability; China isolated itself from the West and cut itself
off from its own traditions. Maos radical ideology impoverished the
Chinese economy and, worse, closed Chinese minds.
After Mao died, China re-embraced pragmatism. “Seeking truth from
facts” became the Party’s new guideline; getting rich became glorious.
Then the most restrictive constraint for economic growth was the lack of
knowledge. This included technical knowledge, knowledge about
institutions — how various market-supporting institutions work, and
local knowledge — what Hayek called “knowledge of the particular
circumstances of time and place.” The solution to this problem was found
in regional competition. When China’s 32 provinces, 282 municipalities,
2,862 counties, 19,522 towns and 14,677 villages threw themselves into
an open competition for investment and for good ideas of developing the
local economy, China became a gigantic laboratory where many different
economic experiments were tried simultaneously. Knowledge of all kinds
was created, discovered, and diffused fast. Through the growth of
knowledge, the enormous scale of Chinese industrialization made its
rapid speed possible.
Conclusion
Given our account of how China became capitalist, what can we say about
the form of capitalism that has emerged in China? A persisting feature
of China’s market transition is the lack of political liberalization.
This is not to say that the Chinese political system has stood still
over the past 35 years. The Party has distanced itself from radical
ideology; it is no longer communist except in name. In recent years, the
internet has increasingly empowered the Chinese to exercise their
political voice. Nonetheless, China remains ruled by a single political
party.
This continuity hides a fundamental change in China’s political
reality. With the death of Deng Xiaoping, “strongman” politics was
brought to a closure. Under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, China is no
longer ruled by a charismatic leader. In that sense, Chinese politics
today is qualitatively different from the time of Mao and Deng. But the
Chinese government has not come to terms with this political change on
the ground; there have been few efforts at institution-building to
prepare China for the new political reality.
The combination of rapid economic liberalization and seemingly
unchanged politics has led many to characterize China’s market economy
as state-led, authoritarian capitalism, which many people have rightly
recognized as fragile and unsustainable. When and how China will embrace
democracy, and whether the Party will survive democratization, are the
main questions asked about China’s political future. In our book, a
different perspective is offered. It provides a different diagnosis of
the main flaw of the Chinese market economy: China has developed a
robust market for goods, but it still lacks a free market for ideas.
The market for ideas points to an alternative way of thinking about
China’s political future. Our reasoning is mainly based on the following
two considerations. First, multiparty competition does not work unless
it is cultivated and disciplined by a free market for ideas, without
which democracy can be easily hijacked by interest groups and undermined
by the tyranny of the majority. The performance of democracy critically
depends on the market for ideas, just like privatization depends on the
market for capital assets. Second, multi- party competition had
virtually no precedent in Chinese history. Indeed, the Chinese word for
the “party” (党) has a strong negative connotation in traditional Chinese
political thinking. “Forming a party and pursuing self-interest” (结党营私)
has been consistently denounced as undermining the political ideal,
which is “what is under heaven is for all” (天下为公). In contrast, the
market for ideas has a deep and revered root in traditional Chinese
thinking; “let one hundred schools of thought contend” has been
respected as a political ideal since the time of Confucius. In our view,
the market for ideas promises a more gradual and viable approach to
rebuilding Chinese politics on the principles of tolerance, justice, and
humility.
Over the past 35 years, China has embraced capitalism not just in the economy. The Theory of Moral Sentiments
has more than a dozen Chinese translations; the book has won the heart
and mind of premier Wen Jiabao. The message of Adam Smith resonates
strongly with the Chinese, not least because of its striking affinity
with the traditional Chinese thinking on economy and society. A
surprising outcome of China’s transition to capitalism is that China has
found a way back to its own cultural roots.
“Seeking truth from facts” is a traditional Chinese teaching, which
Deng Xiaoping mistakenly called the “essence of Marxism.” But many facts
are still covered in China because a free market for ideas does not
exist yet. We are cautiously optimistic that China may well embrace a
market for ideas in the decades to come, just like the way it embraced
the market for goods in the recent past. As our modern economy becomes
more and more knowledge- driven, the gains from free exchange of ideas
are too great; the costs of suppressing it are too high.
China’s embrace of both its history and globalization leads us to
believe that Chinese capitalism, which just started its long journey,
will be different. This is desirable not just for China, but for the
West and everyone else as well. It is also desirable for the global
market economy. Today, biodiversity is recognized as vital for
sustaining our natural environment. Institutional diversity plays a
similar role in keeping human society resilient. Capitalism will be much
more robust if it’s not a monopoly of the West, but flourishes in
societies with different cultures, religions, histories, and political
systems. While trade in the global market for goods makes war too
expensive to fight, a global market for ideas can accommodate and thrive
on the clash of ideas but steers us away from the clash of
civilizations.